Polymarket-Marktanalyse
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
Zusammenfassung
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
Spread‑Analyse
Zurzeit kein Intra‑Market‑Edge (Summe der Best‑Asks ist $1.00 oder höher).
Polymarket-Taker‑Fees variieren je nach Kategorie zwischen 0% und 1.8%. Vor der Größenbestimmung stets auf Polymarket bestätigen.
Ausgänge
| Ausgang | Best Ask |
|---|---|
| Yes | 25,0 % |
| No | 75,0 % |
Preishistorie
Letzte 7 Tage
Häufig gestellte Fragen
- Worum geht es in diesem Markt?
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? Der Markt löst sich am 31.08.2026 basierend auf den auf Polymarket beschriebenen Regeln.
- Wie funktioniert Intra‑Market‑Arbitrage hier?
- Wenn die Best‑Ask‑Preise für alle Ausgänge zusammen weniger als $1.00 ergeben, können Sie jeden Ausgang kaufen und sind unabhängig davon, welcher Ausgang YES wird, auf eine Auszahlung von $1.00 eingestellt.
- Welche Gebühren fallen an?
- Polymarket‑Taker‑Fees für diese Kategorie liegen typischerweise zwischen 0% und 1.8%. Bestätigen Sie die Live‑Gebühr auf Polymarket, bevor Sie Orders platzieren.