Analisi dei mercati Polymarket
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?
Sommario
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 25, 2026, through June 1, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which data is released for the final date in that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if data has not been released for any day in the specified period within 14 calendar days of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which data is released for the final date in the specified period to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Analisi dello spread
Al momento non ci sono edge intra-market (la somma dei best ask è pari o superiore a $1.00).
Le taker fee di Polymarket variano per categoria tra 0% e 1.8%. Conferma sempre prima di dimensionare la posizione.
Esiti
| Esito | Best ask |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1,1% |
| No | 99,0% |
Storico dei prezzi
Ultimi 7 giorni
Domande frequenti
- Di cosa tratta questo mercato?
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Il mercato si risolve il 1 giu 2026 in base alle regole descritte su Polymarket.
- Come funziona l'arbitraggio intra-market qui?
- Se i prezzi best-ask di ogni esito sommano a meno di $1.00, puoi comprare ogni esito e ottenere un pagamento di $1.00 indipendentemente da quale risulti YES.
- Quali sono le commissioni?
- Le taker fee di Polymarket per questa categoria sono tipicamente tra 0% e 1.8%. Conferma la fee corrente su Polymarket prima di piazzare ordini.