Analisi dei mercati Polymarket
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Sommario
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Analisi dello spread
Al momento non ci sono edge intra-market (la somma dei best ask è pari o superiore a $1.00).
Le taker fee di Polymarket variano per categoria tra 0% e 1.8%. Conferma sempre prima di dimensionare la posizione.
Esiti
| Esito | Best ask |
|---|---|
| Yes | 7,5% |
| No | 92,5% |
Storico dei prezzi
Ultimi 7 giorni
Domande frequenti
- Di cosa tratta questo mercato?
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Il mercato si risolve il 4 nov 2026 in base alle regole descritte su Polymarket.
- Come funziona l'arbitraggio intra-market qui?
- Se i prezzi best-ask di ogni esito sommano a meno di $1.00, puoi comprare ogni esito e ottenere un pagamento di $1.00 indipendentemente da quale risulti YES.
- Quali sono le commissioni?
- Le taker fee di Polymarket per questa categoria sono tipicamente tra 0% e 1.8%. Conferma la fee corrente su Polymarket prima di piazzare ordini.