Polymarket マーケット分析
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?
概要
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23 and May 15, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify. If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
スプレッド分析
現在インターマーケットのエッジはありません（ベストアスクの合計が $1.00 以上です）。
Polymarket のテイカーフィーはカテゴリによって 0% から 1.8% の範囲で変動します。サイズを決める前に必ず確認してください。
アウトカム
| 結果 | ベストアスク |
|---|---|
| Yes | 64.5% |
| No | 35.5% |
価格履歴
過去7日間
よくある質問
- このマーケットは何についてですか？
- Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? このマーケットは Polymarket に記載されたルールに基づき、2026/06/30 に決済されます。
- ここでのインターマーケット・アービトラージはどのように機能しますか？
- すべてのアウトカムのベストアスク価格の合計が $1.00 未満であれば、各アウトカムを購入して、どれが YES に決まっても $1.00 の支払いを受けることができます。
- 手数料はどうなっていますか？
- このカテゴリの Polymarket のテイカーフィーは通常 0% から 1.8% の範囲です。注文を出す前に Polymarket 上でライブの手数料を確認してください。