Analisis pasaran Polymarket
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 53% and 56% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ringkasan
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Analisis spread
Tiada edge intra-market sekarang (jumlah best asks adalah sama atau melebihi $1.00).
Yuran taker Polymarket berbeza mengikut kategori antara 0% dan 1.8%. Sentiasa sahkan sebelum menentukan saiz.
Keputusan
| Keputusan | Best ask |
|---|---|
| Yes | 0.1% |
| No | 100.0% |
Sejarah harga
7 hari terakhir
Soalan lazim
- Apakah pasaran ini?
- Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 53% and 56% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Pasaran akan diselesaikan pada 5 Okt 2026 berdasarkan peraturan yang diterangkan di Polymarket.
- Bagaimana arbitrage intra-market berfungsi di sini?
- Jika harga best-ask untuk setiap keputusan berjumlah kurang daripada $1.00, anda boleh membeli setiap keputusan dan dijamin pembayaran $1.00 tanpa mengira yang mana akan diselesaikan sebagai YES.
- Apakah yuran yang dikenakan?
- Yuran taker Polymarket untuk kategori ini biasanya antara 0% dan 1.8%. Sahkan yuran langsung di Polymarket sebelum meletakkan pesanan.