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Polymarket 市场分析

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be at least 8% in May?

No edge
Ends 2026年6月25日
24h Volume
US$74
Liquidity
US$145
Outcomes
2

摘要

This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Spread 分析

当前没有市场内 Edge(最佳卖价之和等于或高于 $1.00)。

Polymarket 的 taker 费用按分类在 0% 到 1.8% 之间。下单前务必确认。

结果

结果最佳卖价
Yes7.0%
No93.0%

价格历史

过去 7 天

在 Polymarket 打开

常见问题

这个市场是关于什么的?
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be at least 8% in May? 该市场将于 2026年6月25日 结算,结算规则见 Polymarket 上的说明。
这里的市场内套利是如何运作的?
如果每个结果的最佳卖价之和低于 $1.00,你可以买入所有结果,从而无论哪个结果为 YES,都能获得 $1.00 的支付。
费用是多少?
Polymarket 在该分类的 taker 费用通常在 0% 到 1.8% 之间。下单前请在 Polymarket 上确认实时费用。