Polymarket 市场分析
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?
摘要
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Spread 分析
当前没有市场内 Edge（最佳卖价之和等于或高于 $1.00）。
Polymarket 的 taker 费用按分类在 0% 到 1.8% 之间。下单前务必确认。
结果
| 结果 | 最佳卖价 |
|---|---|
| Yes | 24.5% |
| No | 75.5% |
价格历史
过去 7 天
常见问题
- 这个市场是关于什么的？
- Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%? 该市场将于 2026年6月2日 结算，结算规则见 Polymarket 上的说明。
- 这里的市场内套利是如何运作的？
- 如果每个结果的最佳卖价之和低于 $1.00，你可以买入所有结果，从而无论哪个结果为 YES，都能获得 $1.00 的支付。
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- Polymarket 在该分类的 taker 费用通常在 0% 到 1.8% 之间。下单前请在 Polymarket 上确认实时费用。