Polymarket 市场分析
Will the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment at block 969,696 be up more than 7%?
摘要
This market will resolve according to the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment that occurs at the specified block height. Block 969,696 is the next difficulty retarget height and is currently expected to be reached on or around October 3, 2026 (ET). If the displayed percentage falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". The difficulty adjustment is the percentage change in Bitcoin network difficulty that takes effect at the specified block height, as displayed in the "Change" column of the Adjustments table on the mempool.space Mining Dashboard. A positive percentage is an "up" adjustment and a negative percentage is a "down" adjustment. If mempool.space does not display the adjustment for the specified block height within 2 calendar days (ET) after that block height is reached, the adjustment percentage as shown by a consensus of credible block explorers will be used. If block 969,696 has not been reached by 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket. The resolution source for this market is the mempool.space Mining Dashboard at https://mempool.space/mining, specifically the "Change" column of the Adjustments table for the specified block height. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the difficulty adjustment percentage as displayed on mempool.space, or, where mempool.space does not display it as described above, the consensus of credible block explorers. Values from other sources will not otherwise be considered for the resolution of this market.
Spread 分析
当前没有市场内 Edge（最佳卖价之和等于或高于 $1.00）。
Polymarket 的 taker 费用按分类在 0% 到 1.8% 之间。下单前务必确认。
结果
| 结果 | 最佳卖价 |
|---|---|
| Yes | 37.0% |
| No | 63.0% |
价格历史
过去 7 天
常见问题
- 这个市场是关于什么的？
- Will the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment at block 969,696 be up more than 7%? 该市场将于 2026年10月6日 结算，结算规则见 Polymarket 上的说明。
- 这里的市场内套利是如何运作的？
- 如果每个结果的最佳卖价之和低于 $1.00，你可以买入所有结果，从而无论哪个结果为 YES，都能获得 $1.00 的支付。
- 费用是多少？
- Polymarket 在该分类的 taker 费用通常在 0% 到 1.8% 之间。下单前请在 Polymarket 上确认实时费用。