Polymarket 市场分析
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
摘要
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Spread 分析
当前没有市场内 Edge（最佳卖价之和等于或高于 $1.00）。
Polymarket 的 taker 费用按分类在 0% 到 1.8% 之间。下单前务必确认。
结果
| 结果 | 最佳卖价 |
|---|---|
| Yes | 7.5% |
| No | 92.5% |
价格历史
过去 7 天
常见问题
- 这个市场是关于什么的？
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? 该市场将于 2026年11月4日 结算，结算规则见 Polymarket 上的说明。
- 这里的市场内套利是如何运作的？
- 如果每个结果的最佳卖价之和低于 $1.00，你可以买入所有结果，从而无论哪个结果为 YES，都能获得 $1.00 的支付。
- 费用是多少？
- Polymarket 在该分类的 taker 费用通常在 0% 到 1.8% 之间。下单前请在 Polymarket 上确认实时费用。