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Polymarket 市場分析

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May?

No edge
Ends 2026年6月25日
24h Volume
US$74
Liquidity
US$257
Outcomes
2

摘要

This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

價差分析

目前沒有場內邊際利差(最佳賣價總和等於或高於 $1.00)。

Polymarket 的 taker 費率依類別在 0% 到 1.8% 之間。下單前務必確認。

結果

結果最佳賣價
Yes23.0%
No77.0%

價格歷史

過去 7 天

在 Polymarket 開啟

常見問題

這個市場是關於什麼?
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May? 該市場根據 Polymarket 上說明的規則,將於 2026年6月25日 結算。
這裡的場內套利如何運作?
如果每個結果的最佳賣價總和低於 $1.00,你可以買下每一個結果,無論哪一方最終為 YES,都能保證拿到 $1.00 的給付。
費用是多少?
Polymarket 在此類別的 taker 費通常介於 0% 到 1.8%。下單前請在 Polymarket 上確認即時費率。